Panama Canal restrictions are the slowest-moving supply chain story — and the one most freight teams underprice.
Drought-driven transit caps cost $200M+ in surcharges across 2024 alone. Capacity has partly recovered in 2026, but the routing patterns shippers adopted during the squeeze are sticky.
Climate-driven supply chain stories tend to either get over-covered (one viral container ship at the Suez) or under-covered (a year-long drought slowly choking the Panama Canal). The Panama story is the latter category. From late 2023 into 2024, drought conditions cut daily transits from the normal 36 to under 24, then partly recovered, then dropped again. Shippers paid the surcharges, paid the auction premiums for time slots, and — more importantly — quietly reorganized their lanes to depend on Panama less.
What stuck
The lane data is unambiguous: trans-Pacific→US East Coast traffic that historically routed through Panama saw partial migration to two alternative paths. Some shifted to West Coast US ports with intermodal rail to East Coast destinations. Some moved to all-water routing via Suez to East Coast (where Suez wasn't disrupted). Not all of that volume came back when Panama's situation improved. Shippers who built routing redundancy during the disruption tend to keep it.
Where the opportunity lives in 2026
Three places. First, intermodal rail volume from West Coast ports to inland and East Coast destinations is structurally higher than it was in 2022. Brokers covering rail intermodal have a tailwind that doesn't reverse. Second, US East Coast port utilization is more sensitive to weather and labor disruptions because the alternative routing through Panama is now less reliable as a hedge. Third, freight insurance premiums on Panama transits remain elevated — a steady headwind for shippers who didn't migrate.
What this means for your team
Audit which of your prospect accounts changed their Panama vs West Coast routing mix between 2023 and 2025. If they shifted, they're likely still optimizing the new pattern — a meaningful conversation. If they didn't shift, they're paying the premium and may be open to re-routing options.